How to Prepare for a Fall Surge of COVID-19

I know you do not want to think about a fall surge of COVID-19. After all, it’s summer. Most of the country is functioning almost like it did pre-pandemic. If you’re vaccinated, the CDC even says that you can go around without a mask.

We’re all ready for this pandemic to be over. However, wanting something to be true doesn’t make it so. The reality is that many medical experts are worried that we could experience a fall surge of COVID-19, especially in areas with low vaccination rates.

If we’ve learned anything from this pandemic, it’s that most people weren’t ready for it. Many families were caught completely off-guard by stay-at-home orders, empty grocery store shelves, and impossible-to-find supplies. Thankfully, it’s unlikely we’ll experience another disruption like we saw in 2020.

However, it’s smart to prepare now for a possible fall COVID-19 surge in your area. Stocking up on supplies and learning skills to build your self-reliance can help keep your family safe and insulated if there is another outbreak.

Is a Fall COVID-19 Surge Likely?

According to the Washington Post, former Food and Drug commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb suggests that a fall 2021 surge is possible if less than 75% of the country remains unvaccinated.

Even now, in mid-summer, infections are increasing in some areas of the country. According to a July 2, 2021 article on CNN, medical experts are sounding the alarm over an increase in these COVID-19 infections.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the CDC, told CNN, “Looking state by state and county by county, it is clear that communities where people remain unvaccinated are communities that remain vulnerable.”

The Rise in the Delta Variant

The Delta variant is what’s causing medical professionals the most concern. According to a June 2021 study published in The Lancet, people infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19 are twice as likely to be hospitalized as those infected with the Alpha variant. The Alpha variant is the strain of coronavirus that circulated in the United States during the 2020-2021 winter, leading to an overwhelming surge in cases and mortality.

What’s most frightening about the Delta variant is its hyper-transmissibility. A June 21, 2021 article in ABC News Australia documented CCTV video footage that captured just how contagious this variant is. In the video, two people briefly cross paths in a shopping mall. One person was unknowingly infected with the Delta variant. After crossing paths with the infected individual, the other person was diagnosed with COVID-19. According to The New York Times, genetic sequencing from both individuals confirmed that they were from the same strain. The Delta variant is estimated to be 60% more infectious than the Alpha variant.

“Literally people not even physically touching each other but fleetingly coming into the same airspace has seen the virus transfer from one person to another,” said Gladys Berejiklian, Premier of New South Wales, in an interview with ABC News Australia. “That’s how contagious it is.”

Possible Sources of Fall COVID-19 Outbreaks

However, some areas of the country still have low vaccination rates and, because of this, these areas could experience a fall COVID-19 surge. According to the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Tracker, states with the lowest vaccination rates include:

• Louisiana
• Mississippi
• Alabama
• Wyoming
• Idaho
• Tennessee
• Georgia
• Missouri
• South Carolina

In addition, with back to school on the horizon, many parents are worried their kids might be at risk.

And, this is a valid concern. In a June 21, 2021 interview with CNBC, Dr. Scott Gottlieb said, “I think the reality is that kids are becoming more likely to be vectors of these new variants…I think we’re going to see that children and schools do become more of a focal point of spread” in the fall.

The Importance of Vaccination

The CDC reports that as of July 2, 2021, 47% of people in the United States have received both vaccine doses. And, if you’ve received both doses of a vaccine, you should largely be protected against the Delta variant.

In a June 30, 2021 interview with The New York Times, Gregg Gonsalves, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, stated, “If you’ve had two doses of the Pfizer vaccine, like me, you should be protected against the Delta variant.”

If you haven’t yet gotten a COVID-19 vaccine, getting one is the best way to prepare for a fall outbreak.

The Health Risks of Infection in Adults and Children

That said, the vaccine only prevents you from developing severe disease and dying from COVID-19. It does nothing to prevent the virus from entering your system and possibly causing other negative health effects. And, medical professionals are still only beginning to understand some of these effects.

For example, a 2021 study published by researchers from U.K. Biobank, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that people diagnosed with COVID-19 experienced tissue loss in areas of the brain associated with taste and smell.

Infected individuals, including children and teens, can also develop long COVID. According to National Geographic, adults, children, and teens can develop long COVID even after a mild or asymptomatic infection of COVID-19. An April 2021 study published in Acta Paediatrica examined symptoms of 123 children diagnosed with COVID-19. According to their research, 35.7% of children still experienced one or two symptoms over 130 days after their initial diagnosis, while 22.5% of children had three or more symptoms.

So, vaccinated or not, this is not a virus you want in you or your child’s body. Ever.

How to Prepare for a Fall COVID-19 Surge

Chances are that if you live in a city like Seattle, which currently has a 75% vaccination rate, you won’t experience a fall COVID-19 surge.

However, many other areas in the United States are at risk. For instance, I live in rural Tennessee, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country. Although we’ve been vaccinated, and everyone in our surrounding family has been, our two boys aren’t yet eligible to get a vaccine. In my county, as of July 2, 2021, 31% of residents have gotten one vaccine dose, and only 29% are fully vaccinated.

Because of this, I’m fully expecting a fall surge of COVID-19 cases in our area due to these low numbers.

If you also live in an area with low vaccination rates, it’s important to start preparing now for a local epidemic this fall. And, keep in mind that you don’t have to do all of this at once! Taking one small step every day will make an enormous difference over time. You don’t have to move forward in leaps…small steps will get you there too, and you’ll be less stressed out in the meantime.

Here’s what you can do to help protect your family.

1. Keep Your Pantry Stocked

One important way to prepare for a fall COVID-19 surge is to create a long-term emergency food pantry, and keep it stocked.

Having a fully-stocked pantry means that you don’t have to worry about possible food supply shortages if infection rates increase in your area. You also won’t have to go to the grocery store as often, which reduces the infection risk for your whole family. Having a well-stocked pantry also helps insulate you somewhat from food price increases.

To save money, buy extra food only when it goes on sale. Or, you can shop at discount grocery stores, like Aldi’s, or bulk warehouses, like Costco or Sam’s Club.

Build Slowly Over Time

And, don’t think you have to build an emergency food pantry all at once! For most people, building a long-term food pantry takes time. It was certainly that way with us. I’ve spent years building our long-term food pantry, purchasing grocery store staples and Augusan Farms freeze dried food as they go on sale.

So, start now buying a little bit of extra shelf-stable food each time you go to the store. A couple of extra bags of dried beans or canned tomatoes each trip won’t impact your food budget too much. However, over time, these extra purchases will help you build a cushion of food security for your family.

You might also consider purchasing food for long-term storage from the The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (LDS) online store. The LDS encourage their followers to have at least one year’s emergency food and supplies put back. The LDS online store sells bulk food for long-term storage, and it’s available to everyone, not just LDS members. I’ve done a cost-comparison between LDS foods and Augusan Farms, and found LDS to be significantly cheaper per pound than Augusan Farms.

2. Start Meal Planning

You should also start now learning the art of meal planning.

With meal planning, you figure out every meal your family is going to eat over the next week or two. You put these meals on your calendar, then shop for every ingredient in one trip. With meal planning, there’s no panic around the question of, “I’m hungry…what’s for dinner?” All you have to do is look at your calendar.

Meal planning can help you prepare for a fall COVID-19 surge because it helps you shop once for the entire week’s worth of meals. You spend less time in crowded grocery stores because you don’t have to make last minute trips for unplanned meals. Planning meals ahead like this can also save money, especially if you meal plan around sale items.

That said, meal planning can be a challenge for some people. I’ll be the first to admit that I still struggle with meal planning sometimes. However, I’m always trying to improve. And, I can tell you that, without a doubt, the weeks I plan out our meals are the lowest-stress weeks in our home.

The folks over at The Kitchn have a wonderfully in-depth article on how to get started planning meals.

3. Prepare for At-Home Learning

Another way to prepare for a fall COVID-19 surge is to make sure you have the supplies you need for at-home learning if schools have to close again. Or, you might decide to try homeschooling full-time.

Start now stocking up on any supplies you and your kids would need for at-home learning. This will include basic school supplies, as well as electronics and blue-light blocking glasses (to help minimize eye strain and promote better sleep).

You should also set up a dedicated learning space for your child, even if this is a small desk in their bedroom or the living room. This space should have good lighting, be well-ventilated, and provide enough room for a laptop (if necessary), textbooks, and school supplies.

If you decide to homeschool this year, figure out which curriculum you want to use and place your order early. Due to the dramatic increase in homeschooling, many companies have found it hard to keep up with demand, especially in late-summer. To avoid shipping delays, plan and shop early.

We’re on our third year of using the curriculum kits from Timberdoodle, and we really love them.

4. Prepare to Work at Home

Many people are going back to work in physical offices or co-working spaces. However, if your region experiences a fall COVID-19 surge, your employer might ask you to work from home again.

To prepare for this, think about what worked well for your family when you worked from home. What frustrations did you experience while working from home? What could you do to alleviate those frustrations, or at least minimize them? How could you make working from home more comfortable or fun?

5. Stock Up On Pandemic Supplies

We all remember how impossible it was to find decent masks in early 2020. Thankfully, it’s now relatively easy to get your hands on things like K95 facemasks and bleach. But, that doesn’t mean it will always be so. Just in case, make sure your pandemic supplies are fully stocked by the end of the summer so you have plenty of what you need. This can include:

• Child and adult-sized K95 face masks (check to make sure the brand is approved by the FDA on this list, as there are many fake K95 masks for sale on Amazon)
• Bleach and other cleaning supplies
• Hand sanitizer and hand soap
• Fully stocked first aid kit
• Extra prescription medications
• Over-the-counter medications to treat common illnesses like coughs, flu symptoms, and diarrhea
• Extra vitamins

6. Start a Garden

Starting a home garden is one of the best things you can do to build self-reliance and increase your family’s food security.

If you don’t have space for a garden, plant herbs or try vertical indoor gardening. If you’ve never planted anything before, pick up one or two vegetables starts at your local farmer’s market or nursery and grow them in containers.

And, don’t panic that it’s too late to plant anything. There are still plenty of vegetables to plant in July for a bountiful fall harvest.

7. Learn First Aid

If your community experiences a severe fall COVID-19 surge, local hospitals and doctor’s offices might become overwhelmed with the sick. And, taking an injured family member into a place full of COVID-19 patients is the last thing you will want to do.

This is why it’s important to learn first aid skills. You should be prepared to treat mild to moderate injuries at home whenever possible. Ideally, you should also have the skills and tools to treat traumatic wounds if you have to.

How do you do this? Take a Red Cross CPR and First Aid class. Learn emergency first aid and trauma care with SkinnyMedic, a first responder, on YouTube. You should also pick up a copy of “The Ultimate Survival Medicine Guide,” by Joe Alton, MD, and Amy Alton, ARNP. We have this book and it is incredibly detailed and thorough.

I know that the thought of learning a lot of first aid skills can feel overwhelming. However, it can help to make a list and focus on learning one new skill each week, or each month. Consider learning how to:

• Perform CPR
• Perform the Heimlich maneuver
• Disinfect and properly dress a wound
• Splint a fractured or broken bone
• Use a tourniquet
• Make a tourniquet
• Pack a wound
• Treat heat stroke and hypothermia

Last Word

I know no one wants to think about a fall COVID-19 surge. However, it could happen in some parts of the country with low vaccination rates.

Do what you can to learn how to be more self-sufficient and prepare for an increase in infections when the weather cools down. Skills like knowing how to bake bread, preserve food, cook from scratch, or prepare food over an open-fire might seem like they belong in a bygone era. However, these skills can help keep your family safe and fed if you’re forced to stay at home due to high infection rates.

On our homestead, we’re starting to make the same preparations for a potential fall surge. I’m planning a fall garden, making sure our herbal medicine cabinet is stocked, preserving food (especially lots and LOTS of strawberry jam!), and slowly replenishing the food in our long-term pantry that we ate up this spring.

Remember, the best way to prepare for an upcoming event, like a fall COVID-19 surge, is to go slowly. If you try to do all the things at once you’ll get overwhelmed, which means you’re more likely to give up. Focus on taking one small step every day. You will make progress, I promise!